I never thought I would hear myself say these words: "Thank you Paris Hilton."

Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Energy Policy, John McCain, Justin Schuck

Democratic Virginia Governor Timothy Kaine is being talked about in political circles as "at the top of [Obama's Vice Presidential candidate] short list." While this might be good fodder for the Wolf Blitzers and Mike Barnicles of the world, I don't think it's smart talk.

I have said for many months, close to a year now, that the only Virginian that fills perceived gaps in Obama's resume is Jim Webb, but I acknowledge that his previous statements on women would be a sharp affront to Clinton and her supporters -- and myself for that matter. But the selection of Webb would certainly make Obama seem more earthy, manly and appealing to a broader range of Americans.

If I were advising Obama, I would give the following advice: Pick a white man from the south. If John Edwards were a politically valuable asset, he'd be at the top of the list, but he proved in 2004 that he isn't the person to compensate for problems at the top of the ticket, and his never having been reelected doesn't make him more appealing. I still think Janet Napolitano is a sensible choice, but she isn't reassuring.

FAIR WARNING: I'm going to be extremely superficial. I hate Gov. Kaine's eyebrows. I hate his how his smile always appears forced and the way his eyebrows arch when he's thinking. He's not an attractive candidate, but I guess Obama is attractive enough for both of them.

I think that the best way to demonstrate how you want to change politics is to change politics. I think Sen. Chuck Hagel would make a good choice. I think Colin Powell would be a smart move, but Alma would likely interfere again. I even think Newt Gingrich would be a wild choice, but it would demonstrate a fundamental understanding that America will always be somewhere in the middle. The Democratic Party would be in a self-hating, never-ending turmoil if Obama chose someone outside of their party to run with the senator. The move would likely depress turnout among the most liberal constituencies and it's that tendency among left-aisle politics that screws up a good thing election cycle after election cycle.

But it's not my choice, it's Obama's choice and only he knows what he's looking to fill. But this lowly pundit thinks a candidate who brings voters not already in the senator's column would be a bigger value to the ticket. Selecting Gov. Kaine might enable the senator to think he's got Virginia wrapped up. And the truth is, it won't.

Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Chuck Hagel, Colin Powell, Editorial, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Newt Gingrich, Tim Kaine

As I said in my article [Regardless, the polls won't matter] I am not convinced that any amount of science can be applied to politics and polling, yet there are many profitable firms that deign to know the heart of America.

The latest two polls from Gallup/USA Today prove my point. They both say the exact same thing. Nothing. The Friday-Sunday poll of likely voters shows McCain up by 4 points at 49% to Obama's 45%. The same poll was conducted of registered voters still has McCain trailing by 3 points with the split at 47% to 44%.

Again, this poll means and tells us nothing. No poll should even be thought to matter until one month after the Republican convention comes to a close in September. The American electorate needs time to digest the candidate's vice presidential running mates, finish watching the Olympics, and be really ready to focus on the November election.

Americans still don't know what they want because they haven't seen what the final model looks like and the big shows are still a month away.

Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Polling

As an active volunteer for McCain Youth 2000 and someone who felt thoroughly disenfranchised by the Republican Party at the time, I am happy to see Sen. McCain finally get his victory lap. Unfortunately this victory lap is 8 years too late.

I welcome the political fight in the fall, and regardless of who receives the democratic nomination in August, the nominee will be running against a candidate who for independents and some democrats is extremely appealing.

Most independent-minded individuals remember how McCain 2000 stood up against evangelical figures, how he campaigned for his party's nomination from the center, how he energized a youthful, moderate base. Sadly however, McCain the 2008 model has actually gone backwards. This model is showing it's age.

John McCain will always be considered one of this country's greatest heroes. I long respected his ability to see his mistakes and correct them. I've also noticed how the republican machine has worn him down, beat him into a small, bitter version of his previous self. People forget just how awful the Bush people were to the McCain people. It was a mess and our man McCain would never forget it. Until he realized that, like Bush, he couldn't be his own man in the party of Lincoln.

I've stopped shedding (metaphorical) tears, but I do offer this unsolicited crumb of advice to the senator from Arizona: Don't run as a candidate seeking to govern for two terms.

If I were your top and most trusted adviser I would tell you to stay positive and fight hard. Keep the punches about facts, steer clear of typical republican sound bites and prepare yourself to have a very full four-year term. More on that a bit later.

I'm happy for Sen. McCain. The republican field was a rodeo of lesser-evils. He will prove to be hard-to-beat in November and will keep the polls close. His best hope for victory will be to see primary-weakened Hillary at the top of the Democratic ticket. If Obama the golden calf wins the nod, McCain's got as much of a chance as an ice cube in hell.

Labels: 2008 Election, Primary, Republican Party

I could draw my explanation out, but regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination fight, and I still predict Sen. Barack Obama, the polls between the Democratic nominee and the John McCain will be close. They'll be close right through to election day.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it's because Clinton is a woman, because Obama is black and because McCain is old. Call me crazy, but it's going to be a battle of the lesser-risks for most Americans, and no poll regardless of the science or the sample behind it will ever accurately show what the actual electorate is thinking.

I get calls all the time, usually for free vacations or herbal supplements, but I think that polling is inherently flawed. Polling that takes place in a market research firm in front of a double-sided mirror isn't any more accurate, no matter how many cameras are recording the participants' reactions.

There are two things in life that have no science, love and politics. Any attempt to apply scientific methods to either yields nothing but enlarged egos and broken hearts.

Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Editorial, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Politics Aside, Polling, Primary, Republican Party